STATEMENT (7/10/08): Storm threat diminishing

At 5 PM...a line of severe thunderstorms in southern Wisconsin is racing 
southeastward at 50 MPH. This line could reach us this evening. 
However...due to the rain-cooled air and cloudiness, this line should 
weaken rapidly once it reaches the Janesville area in the next hour as it 
encounters stable, rain-cooled air, and possibly moves into northern 
Illinois in a much weakened state early this evening.

The storms to our south will remain to our south for the remainder of the 
evening. Still...a severe thunderstorm watch continues areawide until 10 
PM this evening.

*******************************************************************************
Gilbert Sebenste                                                     ********
(My opinions only!)                                                  ******
Staff Meteorologist, Northern Illinois University                      ****
E-mail: sebenste@weather.admin.niu.edu                                  ***
web: http://weather.admin.niu.edu                                      **
*******************************************************************************

*******************************************************************************

7/9/08, 2:45 PM

JUNE 2008 HIGHLIGHTS. June 2008 was a month with near average 
temperatures, and below average precipitation, despite surrounding areas 
less than 20 miles away getting significant flooding.

In DeKalb, the average June temperature was 69.8 degrees, or .3
degrees warmer than the 69.5 degree average. We hit 90 degrees only once, 
and none since then---that date being June 12, when we hit 90 on the head. 
The coolest temperature was 51 degrees, but outside of several days in the 
first two weeks of the month, most of June was quite comfortable.

As for precipitation, June 2008 was below average on rainfall.
We had 3.26" of rain. The average is 4.56". This brings the 
yearly liquid total to 19.69" as of June 30. An average year has 17.62" of 
liquid equivalent by June 30, so despite the somewhat dry month, we remain 
considerably to way above average on liquid equivalent, thanks to heavy 
rain/snow earlier this year.

THE UPDATED SUMMER OUTLOOK. While June was a hair above average, NIU 
weather still believes, with a modest La Nina and baking heat to our west, 
that said heat will eventually get here in the back half of the summer. 
However, our chances for a cool summer are decreasing rapidly. Therefore, 
I bumped up the chances for an average to an above average summer, for a 
combined total chance of 80%.

As for precipitation, models are still not sure what will happen. They had 
a clear dry signal for the rest of the summer; now they don't. I 
forecasted a slightly drier than average summer, and, seeing no explicit 
reason to bump one way or another, and based on an already somewhat drier 
start to the summer, I'm keeping that forecast as is:

Probability of Summer 2008 (June 1-August 31) being:

Warmer than average: 45%
Average: 35%
Colder than average: 20%

Probability of Summer 2008 (June 1-August 31) being:

Wetter than average: 30%
Average: 30%
Drier than average: 40%

ENERGY. What can I say that hasn't been mentioned ad nauseum by the media. 
$140 a barrel oil fueled (no pun intended) by speculation, very tight 
supplies, political unrest in various portions of the world. As a result, 
natural gas prices at $1.20 a therm (historically high) . With an aging 
electrical infrastructure in the U.S., prices won't drop significantly 
here, either. Until supplies go up, prices should continue to climb. It 
*might* not maintain such a torrid pace at times, but I would not be 
surprised to see $5 a gallon gas this summer, and $7/gallon next summer. 
Do what you can to prepare for it and plan ahead if you can, such as 
telecommuting, moving closer to work, etc.

CREDITS. Thanks go to the NIU Geography department, Dr. Walker Ashley,
as well as Kevin Nasiatka, Eric Szos and Monica Zappa for all of the 
climate summary information. NIU climate forecasts and analyses are 
prepared by Gilbert Sebenste, NIU Staff Meteorologist.

DISCLAIMER. Although NIU Weather strives for accuracy, forecasting of
weather is a science and results are not guaranteed. These forward-looking
outlooks are for informational purposes only. Please stay up-to-date on
the latest short and long-term forecasts from NIU Weather by going to our
website at http://weather.admin.niu.edu, and check out our daily and
weekend forecasts via web or email for the latest information.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. Complete information on the current long-term drought 
continuing in the northern Plains, southeastern U.S., California and 
elsewhere can be found at the following sites:

http://www.drought.noaa.gov

http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/drought/moisture.htm

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

For DeKalb's historic climate information and a wireless version of the page, 
visit the NIU Geography Department climate page at:

http://climate.niu.edu

*******************************************************************************
Gilbert Sebenste                                                     ********
(My opinions only!)                                                  ******
Staff Meteorologist, Northern Illinois University                      ****
E-mail: gilbert@niu.edu                                               ***
web: http://weather.admin.niu.edu                                      **
Work phone: 815-753-5492                                                *
*******************************************************************************